Crypto sentiment is deep in "Extreme Fear" territory right now, and honestly, it's easy to see why. Prices keep sliding, macro headwinds aren't helping, and geopolitical noise is only adding fuel to the fire. Sure, some traders are eyeing this as a dip-buying moment, but not everyone is convinced that maximum pessimism equals maximum opportunity.
People Are Literally Googling "Bitcoin Going to Zero" More Than Ever
So the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (if you're not familiar, it tracks market mood on a 0–100 scale) is sitting at 9 today. That's up slightly from an 8 yesterday, and a bit of a bounce from last week's gut-punch reading of 5. Still, let's be real: a 9 is a 9. We're firmly planted in "Extreme Fear" and nowhere close to climbing out.
And it's not just the index. Google Trends data is telling the same story. Searches for "Bitcoin going to zero" have hit an all-time high, blowing past spikes we saw in previous downturns. The search interest score literally maxed out at 100. That's as panicked as retail gets.
Now here's where it gets interesting. Some analysts will tell you this kind of doom-and-gloom environment is actually when you want to be buying.
This point has been made before: when you start seeing mass predictions of collapse, people screaming about prices going "to $0," that's often retail capitulation talking. The weak hands are folding. “And once you see the predictions of doom for cryptocurrency, it's generally the best time to officially buy the dip,” user SanSights noted on Santiment Insights. The logic makes sense on the surface, fear flushes out sellers, and that clears the way for the next move up.
But wait… Bitcoin's Best Returns Actually Came During Extreme Greed, right?
Here's the wrinkle though. Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, isn't buying the fear-equals-opportunity narrative. “Buying BTC in ‘Extreme Fear’ is NOT the best call,” he said.
His data backs that up in a pretty uncomfortable way. When the Fear & Greed Index has dropped below 25 historically, data shows average 90-day forward returns have been more modest compared to other sentiment phases. That's not nothing, but it's hardly the slam dunk people make it out to be.
By comparison, buying in periods labeled as “Extreme Greed” has delivered substantially stronger performance, with average 90D returns reaching as high as 95%.That's a massive gap. This may suggest that extended momentum phases have historically aligned with stronger market performance than periods of peak panic. Puckrin puts it bluntly: "The F&G index is nothing but a backward-looking momentum indicator. It's less relevant for predicting returns."
The pushback came fast though. Critics argued the 90-day window is just too narrow to judge this fairly. One trader made a pretty compelling counterpoint: “90 days after extreme fear- returns look modest but with right framing you can see that 12 months after extreme fear- Bitcoin has averaged over 300% gains historically. The F&G index isn't a 90-day signal. It's a 12-month accumulation alert. You're not supposed to feel rich immediately after buying extreme fear”, an X user suggested.
And that's kind of the crux of it. This moment could be a risk, or it could be a generational opportunity, but the answer probably depends more on your own time horizon and strategy than on any single sentiment indicator.
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