Tease: October has often been unkind to XRP holders. But this year, shifting sentiment, institutional inflows, and a promising setup could finally change the story.
XRP is currently navigating a descending wedge pattern, a chart formation commonly seen as a bullish reversal setup. While past Octobers haven’t favored the token, shifting institutional behaviour and macro catalysts could make this October a turning point.
Demand Under the Surface
Even as price action remained mixed, institutional players kept showing up in September for XRP and other tokens. Total inflows surpassed $220 million, a strong sign that big money sees value despite volatility.
Exchange net positions support the holders’ case. Throughout much of the month, holders brought assets onto exchanges, suggesting short-term selling pressure. Yet in the last week, 439 million XRP were withdrawn from exchanges, a sign that confidence is returning, and fewer coins are available to be sold. This withdrawal trend by both retail and institutional holders indicates a shift from distribution to accumulation, potentially softening downside risk.
History Doesn’t Always Repeat
Historically, October has been a rough month for XRP. Over the past decade, it has averaged a –4.5% return, making it one of the weaker months for the token.
However, past patterns may not fully apply in 2025. It’s worth taking into account that past Octobers occurred during heavy regulatory uncertainty and before institutional infrastructure like ETFs existed. With those catalysts now in play, the usual October weakness may be less relevant this year.
The Price Game: Breakout or Breakdown?
XRP currently trades at around $2.90, trapped between the wedge’s resistance and support lines. A confirmed breakout above $3.02 could set the stage for a rally toward a new all-time high.
But those gains depend heavily on support levels holding firm and positive regulatory momentum. Should ETF approval chatter or institutional inflows accelerate, XRP could build enough momentum to push through resistance.
Still, risks are real. If the breakout fails, XRP could fall back to $2.75, or even lower, invalidating the bullish thesis and repeating October’s usual pattern of weakness.
What Traders and Holders Should Watch
- $2.75 level as key support, $3.02 as breakthrough resistance.
- ETF approvals or denials could act as volume catalysts.
- Fresh large withdrawals or cold-storage movements suggest longer-term conviction.
- Bitcoin’s strength or weakness often drag altcoins with it, XRP is no exception.
For beginners, this means October is a month to stay alert. For more seasoned traders, this wedge setup is looking like one of the cleaner setups in recent years. If it resolves upward, the upside could surprise some skeptics.
Turning Point
October has historically brought turbulence for XRP, but 2025 offers a different backdrop: institutional flows, ETF speculation, and stronger token infrastructure. The descending wedge pattern gives a clear roadmap. If resistance breaks, bulls may be rewarded; if not, the old October curse could strike again.
That said, XRP’s story is still being written. This month will test whether the narrative has shifted enough to rewrite past patterns. Either way, it’s absolutely shaping up to be an interesting ride.
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