Bitcoin can't seem to catch a break lately. It has been stuck under $92,000 for days and down 17% from the beginning of the month. But if you're wondering when the tide might turn, you're asking the right question. Three catalysts could flip the script, and they're all coming into focus sooner than you think.
The crypto king has been trading sideways since Thursday, frustrating bulls who remember the highs above $110,000 from just four weeks ago. While bears point to softening job numbers and shaky AI investment sentiment, bulls are betting on governments cranking up money printing to cover ballooning deficits. Both camps might be right, and the current weakness could actually be setting the stage for Bitcoin's next major move.
The Inflation Shield Is Back in Play
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF—which tracks Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities—just bounced off support at 110.50 on Thursday and resumed climbing. When this ETF rises, it signals investors are bracing for higher inflation. That's typically good news for Bitcoin, since traders start hunting for alternative hedges against eroding purchasing power.
Meanwhile, interest rate expectations are tightening the screws. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 78% chance the Federal Reserve keeps rates at 3.50% or higher through January 26. That's up dramatically from just 47% in late October. Lower rates usually help leveraged companies breathe easier and boost consumer spending—both positives for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The problem? Uncertainty is everywhere. The US government funding issues that dragged on until November 12 has the Fed thinking twice about any December rate cut. Traders have marked one date on their calendar: the November jobs report dropping December 16.
2026 Could Bring Fireworks
The first half of 2026 is shaping up to be a game-changer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May, and President Donald Trump has been vocal about wanting someone who'll ease up on monetary restrictions. No nomination timeline yet, but Senate confirmation typically takes months—enough time for markets to start pricing in a more dovish stance.
There's more: Bloomberg reported that US regulators just finalized rules slashing capital requirements for major banks starting January 1, 2026. Combined with the Trump administration's push for economic stimulus through expanded borrowing (remember the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" from July?), these moves could light a fire under risky assets like Bitcoin.
Derivatives Are at a Standstill
Bitcoin options traders aren't feeling confident yet. Put options (bets on price drops) are trading at a 10% premium over equivalent call options (bets on gains)—a clear sign of defensive positioning. With $22.6 billion in BTC options set to expire December 26, most traders are sitting tight until this "skew" normalizes back toward 5% or lower.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin's path back up remains open, though the timing depends on how these key factors unfold. Inflation expectations are trending upward, regulatory changes for banks could ease financial conditions by early 2026, and potential Fed leadership shifts may signal a less restrictive monetary environment ahead. Meanwhile, derivatives markets suggest traders are waiting for clearer signals before committing to bullish positions.
The December economic data releases and the year-end options expiry will likely influence near-term sentiment, but the more substantial catalysts appear positioned for the first half of 2026. Whether Bitcoin reclaims its recent highs quickly or takes a more gradual path will depend on how these forces interact in the months ahead.
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